Back on March 4 news broke out that an ex-Russian spy turned double agent and his daughter were found poisoned in the United Kingdom. This gruesome news led to speculations that Russia itself was responsible for the attack, especially because the United Kingdom insists that the cause of Sergei Skripal’s critical condition was the use of a nerve agent called Novichok which was developed by Soviet scientists. In a response the United States expelled a number of Russian diplomats.
This week the conflict has exacerbated, with Russia finally retaliating: the world’s biggest country ordered the expulsion of 60 U.S. diplomats. Russia has also stated it would target the diplomats of other countries too – all the states that have backed up the UK in this dispute. These include Germany, France, Poland, Ukraine, Denmark, Australia, Albania, and Spain.
While the White House was prepared for this kind of reciprocal response, this is still bad news overall, as it means the relationship between Russia and the United States are worsening – not that they have ever been great. The Russian consulate in the States is closed, as is now the American consulate in Russia.
The US State Department has since said that while it was not surprised by Russia’s reaction, it would treat it as “unwarranted” since the first expulsion ordered by the United States was in conjunction with the law, as there is an international ban on the usage of chemical weapons which Russia violated with the attack on the Skripals. This was actually the first usage of a chemical weapon in Europe since World War II. The American government has also said that the diplomats expelled from the United States are suspected of being intelligence officers rather than simple politicians. Because of this the States feel entitled to take further action, responding to Russia’s response. One can easily see how this can turn into a chain reaction.
We need to follow these events closely as there hasn’t been so much tension between East and West since the times of the Cold War. However, one significant difference right now is that the current head of the White House Donald Trump is someone whose position on the matter of Russia is quite vague. For one thing, there is still an ongoing investigation into whether Russia influenced the presidential elections in the US which led to Trump’s win. President Trump has also spoken quite positively of President Putin, one of the few world leaders to do so. Even though the American government is taking action against Russia, it is not clear yet how Trump wants to handle what might easily turn into a crisis. So far Trump has not commented on the attack on Skripal. He even called Vladimir Putin to congratulate him on his recent presidential win, so for all we know, Trump appears to be very supportive of Russia.
Russia is handling this conflict very carefully too: seeing that they may have the support of President Trump, Russian politicians have not been quick to blame him for the actions of the State Department, instead using softer language towards the US President, something that has been previously proven to work well when dealing with the Trump.
In total 150 Russian diplomats and officials have been expelled from other countries who have claimed they are Russian spies. This is still a developing story, but we need to follow it closely, as together with Trump’s tariff plan and Trump’s upcoming meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, this is shaping to be one of the key threads to influence the global financial markets.
