The number of total coronavirus cases globally is approaching 215 million. The current daily infection rate is around 700K new Covid-19 cases per day, which is a number previously seen this spring. That’s when the delta variant was first identified in India and we saw the highest daily infections in a single country since the start of the pandemic.
The countries with the highest daily tallies yesterday were the United States (171K), India (46K), Iran (39K), the United Kingdom (35K), and Brazil (30K). With so many infections per day in many corners of the world, the coronavirus pandemic is likely going to remain a major influence on the markets through the end of the week and further.
As for other fundamental events, today Germany published its GfK consumer confidence report for September, which was a bit lower than the forecast at -1.2.
Today is also the day when the European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting. The ECB has adjusted its expectations and is now ready to tolerate inflation above 2% for some time, so it is not clear what would happen to asset purchases yet.
Meanwhile, the United States published the second estimate for GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021, which was lower than the forecast. A growth of 6.7% QoQ was expected, but the economy grew by 6.6% instead. The GDP price index was better than expected, though.
As is usual of any regular Thursday, the US also published some joblessness reports today. Initial jobless claims were slightly higher than anticipated, as were continuing claims. Still, the 4-week average is moving steadily lower.
In any event, the lackluster jobless claims data will probably not have much of an effect on the Federal Reserve, which is beginning its Jackson Hole Symposium today. The markets will be all ears from now until Chairman Jerome Powell makes a formal speech tomorrow, since there are mixed expectations about whether Powell will signal the beginning of asset purchase tapering or not.
US stock indices are set to trade mixed during today’s session because so much depends on the events in Jackson Hole. The more cyclical Dow Jones index might do a bit better than tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, which are going to weaken in case a monetary policy tightening is announced.
