Over the past few months the markets have been preoccupied with news of economic recovery. Vaccinations rates were going up in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union: the developed countries that pose the greatest concern in 2020. Fundamentals have been improving and so has the overall confidence that the world is finally recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.
But that is not the full story. India, one of the most important emerging markets, suffered its worst coronavirus outbreak in the second quarter of 2021. Things got so bad that it recorded higher daily infection rates than the US ever did of 400K cases and beyond. In just a few months India accumulated over 30 million Covid-19 infections, dangerously close to the 35 million of the US, which happened over a much longer period of time.
Brazil and Turkey, other developing countries, were also severely affected by the coronavirus during this time.
The reason for the renewed concerns about Covid-19 is the emergence of the so-called Delta variant, the version that was predominant in India. It is more highly contagious than any of the other variants, including the UK variety which caused the worst global outbreak in January and February this year.
And now the Delta variant is spreading around the world. The United Kingdom, through fast and efficient vaccinations, had brought its infection rate down to under 2,000 cases per day in May. Now those numbers are growing and the country is seeing over 30,000 new Covid-19 infections each day, all from this new variant.
Israel, another country with an incredibly high vaccination rate, virtually stopped declaring any Covid-19 cases in late April. But now the coronavirus is making a resurgence, even though Israel has a vaccine administration rate of over 100 doses per 100 people.
The Delta variant has also been identified in the United States, the country that maintains the record for the worst Covid-19 outbreak so far, and one that struggled for so long to bring the virus under control. There are still millions of unvaccinated Americans, or people with just one dose of the vaccine. At this point it’s not a matter of whether the United States is going to start seeing record daily infection rates again, but when.
To make matters worse, Pfizer, the company behind one of the two mRNA vaccines and arguably the most popular Covid-19 vaccine in the world, announced that based on real-world data from current outbreaks, it seems that the immunity from its vaccine is fading.
Israel claims that the efficiency rate of Pfizer’s vaccine (after two doses) has gone from 90% down to around 60% against the Delta variant. If the coronavirus continues to mutate and new variants keep emerging, there will come a point when the vaccines will no longer offer adequate protection.
According to Pfizer, six months seems to be more or less the limit of its vaccine. The company recommends a third dose after half a year as a booster shot. It is also working on an entirely new mRNA vaccine to target the quickly evolving virus. There will be a new clinical trial for the new vaccine in August, so perhaps by the end of 2021, if there are no issues, Pfizer might start selling its newer vaccine and scrap the old one.
In the meantime, it seems that a large portion of the world will remain in danger of Covid-19. There are almost no countries with a vaccination rate of over 70% and herd immunity. Some countries barely have access to any vaccines, sent as donations. Countries that do have access to vaccines struggle with rising anti-vax sentiments.
Are countries more prepared to handle another coronavirus wave? Perhaps. We are likely going to find out soon due to the virus mutating so quickly and pharmaceutical companies struggling to keep up.
