Is AUD/USD a downtrend with high volatility or is it an incipient uptrend? The question is controversial. As can be seen on the chart, at the end of October, after reaching a minimum, quotes sharply rushed up, breaking through the resistance line and shifting it up. Then there is another fall, which can be interpreted as a price correction within a new upward trend or as a resumption of the old downward trend. At the same time, we are not confident in the ability of the Australian dollar to withstand the USD with a clearly stronger economy.
The USD continued to strengthen this week following the release of updated Q4 GDP, which was significantly better than expected, as was business activity in January. Demand for the US currency is intensified by rumors about a decrease in the likelihood of a downward revision of the rate in the foreseeable future against the backdrop of good macroeconomic indicators.
Next week we will see a report on inflation in Australia and business activity in China in the 4th quarter. These indicators may change the demand for risky assets and commodity currencies. Most technical analysis tools indicate the effectiveness of Buys. We believe that such deals will be the most effective based on the data that is available at the moment.
