This week the world shook with the news that Afghanistan has fallen. More accurately, the capital city Kabul has fallen; the rest of the Middle-Eastern country was taken by the Taliban slowly and meticulously over the past few months. But as the militant group finally wrestled control over the capital from the official government, it became clear that things will change for the worse in Afghanistan.
Two decades after the United States and its allies liberated Afghanistan from the Taliban regime, the militant group started another offensive. The US, which spent years arming and training local troops how to fight, announced that it will withdraw from Afghanistan earlier this year. This gave the Taliban an opportunity to start fighting for control again as the United States and its allies began withdrawing from the country this spring.
Many western leaders have been critical of the United States, specifically President Joe Biden, over the decision to move away from Afghanistan. They argued that without the protection of the US, the country will be exposed to issues with the Taliban again. In May the first Taliban attacks began, but the US still stood by its decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, hoping that the local troops can fight the militans off, and that the capital Kabul will hold.
However, this did not appear to be the case. In less than three months the Taliban gained control over most of the country and this week they took Kabul. Ousted President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. Now the Taliban have effective control of the country.
This poses a number of concerns. First off, another refugee crisis is likely coming, as the majority of the Afghan population seems like it does not want to live under the Taliban regime. Last time when the Taliban were in charge, they established Sharia law and severely limited people’s civil rights and liberties. Just this week Kabul’s airports were flooded with crowds of people desperate to hop onto any airplane, even holding onto the wings of planes, just so they could get out of the country before the Taliban started putting their policies into action.
The European Union is especially concerned about refugees. Just like it happened with the civil war in Syria, most refugees out of Afghanistan will likely end up in Europe, possibly posing security and economic risks. EU member states have different approaches to humanitarian crises, with states closer to Turkey, i.e. closer to Afghanistan on land, typically taking a hard stance against refugees.
The US most probably will not experience much of an aftermath of its decision, not in the way Europe will, but this move may complicate its diplomatic relationships with the countries who will bear most of the consequences of the United States’ actions.
Furthermore, knowing that the Taliban have a long history of associating with other terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda, the takeover of Afghanistan could introduce more conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East, which will have a negative impact on the oil market.
