The rates of the USD/SEK continue in the frames of a downward trend. In June it became more and more rapid but since the beginning of August the rates consolidated in the range 8.056-8.121 SEK. This situation is a reflection of the common tendency of the weakening of the dollar, especially against the Euro. Investors took into account all the risks related with the dollar, such as political instability, disappointment in the administration of Donald Trump, the current Federal Reserve policy, and neutral economic statistics. Because of this, EUR, JPY and other currencies seem much more stable and preferable for investors now. As a result, the value of the Euro reached the level of January of 2015 and the value of the Swedish Krona reached the April 2016 level. It should be noted that the SEK is trading near the minimums for the recent years: the SEK had cost less only until January 2015.
However, not only external factors impacted the strengthening of the SEK, but also the good economic indicators in Sweden. The index of business activity in the services sector amounted to 59.0 in June, reaching a three-month maximum and confirming steady growth in the service sector of Sweden. A week earlier, the market received data about retail sales in June, which increased by 3.5%, exceeding forecasts by 0.5%. This is the highest growth level over the last eight months.
At the moment there's a high probability of a sustained consolidation phase. Probably the SEK has reached its minimum, but also, there is the assumption that the strengthening of the SEK will continue if the Euro or the Swedish Krona find new stimulus factors for that. For the next week we can't see such factors. In this situation, the most effective deals are the deals on the trend in medium-term trading. It's also necessary to pay attention to the entry points 8.056 SEK and 8.121 SEK, the achievement of which will be a signal about the completion of the consolidation phase, continuation or trend reversal.
