Today trade statistics from China show that the country’s trade surplus with the United States has grown. For the past year US President Donald Trump has been hitting Chinese goods with tariffs precisely because he wanted the surplus to shrink, but the latest data shows the opposite happened. Indeed, the tariffs caused China to export 2.6% less to the United States, but they also cut their own imports of American goods by a staggering 25.7%. Trump has yet to comment on this, but it is possible that he might see it as another way in which China is undermining the trade negotiations, which are already fragile.
In terms of the United States, later today we expect inflation data. The Federal Reserve already confirmed an interest rate decrease to be implemented at the end of July, but inflation reports matter as to how much the rate will be adjusted. So far the bets are for just 25 basis points.
On the crude oil market today we continue to see higher than average prices due to interruptions in the Gulf of Mexico, where a storm is expected. Other than that, the IEA announced that the market will be oversupplied in the next nine months, so the long-term tendency is for prices to drop.
