Starting from February 2017, we have a clear downward trend which has all chances to continue. The Canadian dollar rose in price due to an active increase of the interest rate by the Bank of Canada, rising oil prices, and optimal economic indicators. The only factor that exerted constant pressure on the CAD was the US desire to revise the terms of NAFTA or even cancel this trade agreement. The Australian dollar at the same time is losing its status as a highly profitable and relatively safe-haven currency amid the worsening situation on the raw materials market and the slowdown in GDP growth.
This week volatility on the global market has decreased due to the Thanksgiving holiday and a weak news background. The AUD/CAD rates were impacted by the release of protocols from the RBA meeting only, which was negatively perceived by investors, as well as data about the volume of retail sales in Canada, which also disappointed investors because retail sales rose 0.1%, while it was expected they would grow by 0.9%, 9 times more than they did. This has led to some consolidation of the AUD. At the same time, rising oil prices support the CAD at a high level. The AUD doesn't have such incentives for growth at the moment.
The price correction which happened this week is close to completion. Next week the CAD may find support from new data about the GDP and employment. In this situation, the best would be the short deals on the trend in mid-term and long-term trading.
