The rates continue in the frames of an upward trend, although a few weeks ago it was under threat of completion, after OPEC's decision to increase oil extraction. However, this did not happen. In general, the increase in oil was not as significant as expected on the market. In addition, there are a number of factors on the market that continue to support oil. It seems that the US and OPEC have decided to trade places: previously, OPEC has made efforts to raise oil prices, while the US has prevented all these attempts thanks the steady growth of shale oil production.
This week there were many factors that stimulated the growth of oil prices. First of all, oil was positively affected by news from the US and its sanctions. The main factor in the price growth was the data on the sharp fall of oil reserves in the US by 9.9 million barrels. With a record output of shale oil, exports remained at the same level, while the processing capacities are 100% busy. Thus, if the volume of exports does not grow, the volume of shale oil production in the US will have to be limited. Perhaps that is why the United States seeks to use sanctions against Iran to reduce the volume of oil exported from Iran down to zero, although Iranian oil is ready to be replaced by oil from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The US requires that its allies completely refuse oil from Iran until November 2018, and if their requirement is met, oil exports from Iran to foreign markets will be reduced at least twice. In addition, there is a possibility of reducing oil supplies from Libya, where two governments have formed, claiming to export terminals for oil.
The oscillators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI) unanimously indicate the rates are in the overbought zone. In the near future we can expect a price correction, after reaching the next maximum for many years - 73.4 dollars per barrel for the CL/WTI. The most optimal in the short term would be the deals against the trend - the deals to SELL. At the same time, in the long term the uptrend will continue and oil will continue testing new levels that were unreachable in the last few years.
