Oil (CL/WTI): Review & Forecast

Oil (CL/WTI): Review & Forecast

Technical Analysis
18. 10. 2018

Oil is under pressure. However, after the price correction it's possible to open deals on the trend.

Volatility on the oil market during the last few months has been extremely high: the price changed from $64 in August to $76 in early October. At the same time, the rates continue within a stable uptrend. Oil rose in price under the influence of US sanctions against Iran, which raised fears on the market about the likely deficit of oil. Exporting countries have begun to revise the volume of oil extraction with the intention to replace Iranian oil with theirs. So, the increase in oil extraction for a while is no longer threatening the market with an overabundance. At the same time, further price increases are mainly not interested in OPEC countries or other oil exporters.

In early October prices, having reached another peak, began falling rapidly. The main factor in the decline in oil again was the growth of shale oil extraction and the growth of oil reserves in the USA for the fourth week in a row. At the same time, the US Department of energy predicts further growth in oil extraction and overall, expect that Iranian oil will be completely replaced by American oil. At the same time, it can be assumed that as we approach the second round of sanctions, which will come into force on November 4, oil can still recover in value to the level of 70+ dollars.

At the moment we can see on the chart an approximation of the rates to the support line. The Stochastic oscillator indicates the rates in the oversold zone. In this situation, the most optimal at the moment seem the deals to Buy.

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