EUR/CAD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The rate continues within a flat trend.

Fundamental Analysis
2021年2月03日

The rate continues within a flat trend, in the range of 1.5190-1.5931 CAD, rarely getting out of this corridor. The euro is a fairly strong currency today and does not allow the Canadian dollar to strengthen, despite the rise in oil prices. At the same time, both currencies are deprived of any significant incentives, but remain under constant pressure due to the pandemic, weak macroeconomic indicators, and upcoming stimulus measures to support the economy.

This week, a series of macroeconomic reports on the eurozone was published. It became known that there was a significant increase in inflation in the Euro area, which is a positive signal. The PMI index of business activity in the manufacturing sector also rose above the forecasts in January, and the unemployment rate remained at the same level. However, investors are cautiously waiting for the publication of data on the GDP, which may shrink under the influence of new quarantine restrictions in the winter in a number of EU countries, including Germany. Therefore, the value of the euro changes slightly against other currencies.

In the absence of macroeconomic reports, the Canadian dollar was under pressure along with other commodity currencies due to a weak performance of the business activity index in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Investors are getting more and more signals about the stagnation of the economy, which limits the demand for raw materials. Nevertheless, oil remains at highs, and investors expect the publication of macroeconomic reports from Canada, which will fully assess the attractiveness of investments in the Canadian dollar. So far, the CAD has strengthened slightly against the euro, and in general, the perspective in the confrontation with the euro is good. Most technical analysis tools also indicate the effectiveness of the deals to SELL. The entry points can also be at the levels of 1.5190 and 1.5931. Achieving the first one is considered the most likely today.

Stanislav Litinskyi

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