An upward trend was formed in December due to the improvement of the economic situation in Australia and the rising prices of the iron ore. On the back of strong economic statistics, investors have increased the probability of a rate hike by the RBA, although they did not plan to change their soft monetary policy. The AUD strengthened also due to the growth in the Chinese economy and the weakening of the CAD.
The Canadian dollar came under pressure because of a decrease in oil prices. The price of oil has probably reached its peak and began to fall down this week. Traditionally, the reason for the decline was the increasing volume of oil extraction in the US and the high drilling activity there. Most experts suppose that oil extraction soon will exceed 10 million barrels per day. So the oil price decrease was expected on the market.
The latest data on the economy of Australia did not let the AUD rise significantly versus the CAD: the business confidence index in Australia reached 11 pips in December. This is the highest level over the last six months, however, investors expected the reaching of 12 points; the index of consumer prices increased in Q4 by 0.6%, which is slightly lower than expected on the market.
At the moment, the rates consolidated in the range 0.993-0.999 CAD. In the near future data is expected about Canada's GDP, which could support the Canadian dollar. It is also likely that after a rapid falling in oil prices from 66 to 64 dollars, there will be some price correction that will support the Canadian currency. Next week the market will be waiting for information about the trade balance in Canada and data on the employment situation which can significantly impact the rates of the AUD/CAD. In this situation the best would be the short deals against the trend, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator. You can also take into account the levels 0.993 and 0.999, a breaking of which will indicate the resumption or change of the current trend, making them good points of entry.
