CAD/JPY: Fundamental Review & Forecast

Technical Analysis
24 mag 2017
CAD/JPY: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The rates of the CAD/JPY for a long time have been in the frames of a rapid downward trend, but now the situation might change. The trend has lost its intensity and the Canadian dollar strengthened against the yen. Perhaps we can see the beginning of a new trend. Actually it has been formed already and we can see that the resistance line has shifted and turned up. However, given that the strengthening of the CAD is mainly based on the increase of oil prices, which continue to grow due to the upcoming summit of OPEC this Friday, crude oil prices may resume their decline for the next few weeks. This could happen in any case - if OPEC countries extend their agreement on the reduction of oil production and in case they do not. The reason is that extending the agreement by the OPEC member states does not solve all questions about the overabundance of oil on the market. The United States and Canada can negate all OPEC efforts, and higher prices will only motivate them to further increase their oil production. This has been proven in practice.

The Japanese yen wasn't able to resist successfully the onslaught of the Canadian dollar due to disappointing data from Japan this week: the trade balance of Japan was 0.1T in April, although investors expected a level of 0.25T, the volume of exports grew by only 7.5% against the expected growth of 7.8%, and the volume of imports increased by 15%, which is more than expected but in the future is a threat to the trade balance of the country. Next week important data that could support the yen is not expected at all.

Thus, we can say that in the short term, the CAD will strengthen against many currencies due to the increasing of oil prices. It's happening now - oil prices on Monday achieved a five-week high and continue to grow, so the deals to Buy will be the most effective at this moment in short-term trading.

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