Today began with new data on China's economy, which was not as terrible as the data on the trade balance revealed this week and generally consistent with forecasts. However, this had little impact on the rates because investors are primarily concerned about the trade deal between China and the United States. This week, the probability of ending the trade conflict has decreased. The market continues to receive contrary information about the success of the negotiations on the deal. Investors in conditions of uncertainty are paying more attention to safe assets. At the same time, the volatility is very high. In particular, Gold in just 2 days changed in price from 1277 dollars to 1290.
In the afternoon we expect data on the US and Canadian trade balance, as well as a report on the number of vacancies in the USA and the producer price index. Therefore, volatility will be high until the evening for currency pairs with the USD and the CAD. Volatility for commodity currencies and safe assets will be no less high, as investors expect news on the conclusion of the trade deal in the coming days. A lack of a trade deal before the end of the week will mean a failure in the negotiations between the US and China or maybe an extension of the trade conflict for a certain period in the current state.
