2017: What to Expect

Two weeks into 2017 we still can’t quite shake all of the surprises of 2016. It feels like during the past year so many expectations were shattered and events took such unpredictable turns, we can’t help but wonder if 2017 would be the same way. Frankly, things seem well-poised to take a turn for the worse in 2017. Donald Trump as President Why not begin with the elephant in the room? Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States was perhaps the single biggest shock of 2016. Trump is set to step into office before the end of the month; what happens after that is a mystery. He’s made protectionist promises that have strengthened the dollar but he’s also spoken about problematic relations with China and Mexico. Trade agreements might come under scrutiny during his rule. Additionally, he’s spoken about America’s role as a global peace-maker and beacon of democracy, particularly about how in his view the US isn’t getting anything in return, so it is possible that under Trump’s leadership the States would gradually retreat from global issues, which could be very dangerous. China For the past several years China has had economic problems of its own. Now, with a Trump presidency that’s vowed to endanger China’s position as a major trade partner of the US, it is possible the country would suffer further. This is quite a precarious situation because China is always in the spotlight of the global economy – if it is not doing well, everyone who does business with it (and that is, in fact, everyone) would also suffer the consequences. Russia With the US possibly playing a smaller role in the global power game, and a diffused China, Russia has greater chances to step in and exert its influence over the world. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on this major power and its ambitions. With weaker resistance from the West, it’s not impossible that we might see political divisions reminiscent of Cold War times. Discontent While it is difficult to define this factor, it’s important to recognize that people are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with governments and politics. The lower and middle classes in many places seem to feel they have been ignored; especially the poorer, older, less educated populations that cast their votes with the economically threatening options of Brexit or Trump demonstrate that people are looking for new voices to express their dissatisfaction with the way of things. This may seem not related to trading directly, but it is actually crucial to remember that people’s unhappiness is the single most decisive stimulus for change and political and economic upheavals in human history.