Today we are going to take a look at the USD/JPY currency pair. As of January 9 the pair began a downwards movement which has continued during this week.
The US dollar has been losing its positions against most major currencies. Recent shocks for the dollar came from the government shutdown and the inability of Trump’s administration to guide the Senate to a funding deal that would resolve this issue. Even positive news such as the official recognition of Jerome Powell as the next chief of the Federal Reserve and a strong belief that the Fed will increase interest rates again in March have both failed to give the dollar a boost, which is why the American currency is hanging at its lowest level in three years.
The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is gaining in value. The appreciation is due to the changing course of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. The BoJ is experimenting with different measures in an effort to bring inflation closer to the desired 2%. Part of this includes reducing the stimulus measures implemented over the last few years. If this continues, the yen would likely grow more.
In sum, these factors lead us to believe that the USD/JPY will be in a bearish trend for some time. On the daily chart we have a pivot point of 109.43, but the pair is already trending below it. We expect to see the price approach the nearby supports at 108.76 and 108.31. It is not likely that the pair will go above the pivot, but if it does, watch out for the resistances at 109.89 and 110.55. The indicators of technical analysis unanimously agree on a strong sell signal.
