As expected, a downtrend was formed at the end of January. The US dollar is constantly under the influence of negative factors, replacing each other with enviable regularity in recent times. However, it is gradually strengthening against the NZD, which is slowly but surely decreasing in price due to unconvincing economic statistics. The USA seems to be okay in that regard: unemployment is decreasing, the GDP is growing, even surpassing investors' forecasts, which allows the FED to regularly raise the rate. The only negative factor for the US economy remains the negative trade balance, which continues to increase. In February this indicator reached -75.35 billion dollars, that is 6 million extra compared to the previous month. At the same time, Donald Trump's active protectionist policy aimed at reducing the trade deficit led to the probability of a trade war, which negatively affects the dollar. It can be assumed that in the absence of this factor, the dollar could rise significantly against most currencies.
The Central Bank of New Zealand is not going to raise the rate in the foreseeable future, as the Central Bank revealed a week ago. The RBNZ once again showed its commitment to a soft monetary policy. This was expected by investors, given the low level of inflation and a weak GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which mainly occurred with adverse weather conditions for the agriculture sector. All of this, of course, had a negative impact on the value of the NZD, although this week the New Zealand currency managed to strengthen based on new data on the trade balance, which again came to a surplus of 217 million NZD, while investors expected a 100 mln trade deficit.
The stochastic oscillator signals that the rates are in the overbought zone. The most optimal in the current situation would be short deals on the trend, which can be effective in the short and medium term.
