Ever since the Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, won a majority in the December elections, the conversation around Brexit died down somewhat. It became a certainty that Parliament will back Johnson’s withdrawal agreement, and thus the United Kingdom will exit the European Union before the deadline, which is today.
Officially, the United Kingdom will leave the EU at 11pm GMT today. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is referring to Brexit as the beginning of a new era for the UK.
However, the United Kingdom will continue to function like an EU member state for the duration of the transition period that begins immediately after Brexit. In essence, everything will remain the same during the transition, allowing business to continue as usual while the UK and the EU engage in hectic negotiations to define their relationship after the transition ends.
The reactions in the UK today are mixed. Politicians who advocated for the Leave vote are making upbeat remarks, and Leave voters are expected to do a parade later this evening. Meanwhile, the tone is the exact opposite in Scotland, a country who convincingly supported Remain, especially considering being part of the EU was the reason why the Scottish people voted not to break free from the United Kingdom in a referendum just a few years ago. Leaving the EU against their wishes now seems to be in direct contradiction to what was promised to Scotland then, leading many to expect a new independence referendum might be in the making.
Now the Brexit conversation will shift entirely on the negotiations between the EU and the UK. Normally, the UK was to be allowed a three-year transition period in order to ensure proper agreements are reached on all points. However, Johnson single-handedly decided to cut this period down to 11 months, prompting many to doubt if a free trade agreement was possible within that time frame.
The progress (or lack of such) in the negotiations will likely dictate the British pound’s fate in 2020.
