The period of calm in March was replaced with a period of strong growth and with a resumption of the upward trend. The USD/SEK rates reached the level from exactly a year ago. Strong economic statistics on the US economy and the weakening of geopolitical factors contributed to the recovery in the value of the dollar. In the Eurozone we can see a slowdown in economic growth, which negatively affects the cost of the Swedish Krona.
This week investors were focused on the FED meeting, where it was decided to leave the rate unchanged. As a result, the dollar has stopped growing, but still has a chance of further growth today, due to the release of unemployment data in the United States. In case of a reduction in unemployment in line with expectations, the dollar may strengthen considerably against most currencies because the improvement in the labour market is another signal for the FED to raise the rate next month.
The Swedish Krona amid a strong dollar cannot get enough incentives for strengthening. Data about the Swedish economy is contradictory: the balance of trade in March was unexpectedly positive by 2600 billion SEK. Thus, over the past four months Sweden has managed not only to reduce the negative balance, but also to reach a noticeable plus, which pleases investors. However, the PMI manufacturing index fell sharply to 54.5 points, which is the lowest level since August 2016.
At the moment the most optimal would be the deals to BUY. The USD has not yet exhausted the possibilities for growth, and after the price correction, it may again go up right to the resistance line. The stochastic oscillator indicates the rates in the oversold area and also signals about the deals on the trend. Consolidation is possible around 8.92 SEK.
