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EUR/AUD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

MAR 20, 2019
EUR/AUD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The EUR/AUD is one of the lowest volatile pairs to date. The rates have been in a strictly defined, flat range since January this year. However, as of February, we have seen a gradual upward shift and the formation of an uptrend.

Macroeconomic statistics and a number of negative factors preventing the strengthening of the AUD also support the formation of an uptrend. First of all, we are talking about the lack of progress in the negotiations between China and the United States. Furthermore, according to the published minutes of the RBA meeting, the regulator will keep the rate at the current level, taking into account the increased external risks associated with the slowdown in the global economy, and most importantly - China, where industrial production output fell to the lowest level in 17 years. Against this negative background investors are hesitant to invest in the AUD.

The EUR, on the other hand, is strengthening mainly due to the weakening of other currencies. Secondary macroeconomic statistics provide some hope for an improvement in the economic situation in Europe, but nothing more.The end of March for the Euro was relatively calm, with only the situation with Brexit as a potential source of uncertainty. At the same time, the current situation plays in favor of the Euro and good economic statistics in Britain provide a weak support for the value of the Euro this week.

The end of March is expected to be even calmer for the EUR/AUD. On 29 March, Friday, GDP data will be published in Britain, Spain, as well as data on unemployment in Germany, which may affect the value of the euro. In this situation, the most optimal would be the deals to Buy, as confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Entry points can also be specified at the output levels of the flat trend at 1.6096 and 1.5727 AUD. Achieving the first one looks more likely today.

Thank you for reading!