OIl (Cl/WTI): Fundamental Review & Forecast

The rates continue within the upward trend, but the intensity of the trend is falling rapidly. In February oil was strengthened by increasing the probability of a solution to the trade conflict between China and the United States and a truce between these countries, but as time goes by investors are not receiving any concrete evidence of progress in the trade negotiations. In addition, oil prices are limited in growth due to forecasts of a slowdown in the global economy. This week these forecasts are confirmed with the release of China's GDP growth forecasts. According to the Chinese Central Bank, the GDP will grow by 6% in 2019, although in 2018 China's GDP grew by 6.6%.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from the USA have strengthened the USD. Reports received on the US GDP, real estate market, as well as the growth of the PMI index of business activity support the dollar at a high level, but negatively affects the cost of oil. At the same time, oil reserves in the US, according to recent reports, exceed forecasts by 7 times. Analysts predicted an increase of the reserves by 1.2 million barrels, while in fact they increased by 7.3 million barrels. The largest oil companies in the United States announce an increase of oil extraction in their fields.



Another blow to oil prices was the news of the resumption of oil extraction in Libya, with the perspective of a gradual increase in extraction within the OPEC agreement. Thus, oil was influenced by many negative factors that will negatively affect its value in the long term. Therefore, in the near future we can expect a shifting of the support line down. The current uptrend can still be maintained, although in the medium term there is a possibility of a trend change. In this situation, the most effective would be the deals to SELL. Oscillators at the same time are contradictory.