The NZD doesn't have enough support for strengthening. The deals to SELL seem to be the most effective at the moment.

The rates continue within the downtrend in favor of the USD. The New Zealand dollar continues to be under pressure due to the economic downturn in New Zealand and the trade conflict between China and the USA, which affected the NZD most as a commodity currency. At the same time, according to long-term forecasts for 2019, the pressure on commodity currencies will increase amid a recession in the global economy and a continued trade conflict between the US and China.

This week market volatility has increased. At the same time, macroeconomic reports for December last year continue to be published. The latest data on the US economy turned out to be contradictory: the PMI index in the non-manufacturing sector fell to 57.6 pips in the US, which is the lowest for the last 2 years. The number of open vacancies in the labor market is 6,888 places, according to the JOLTS, which does not meet the expectations on the market. At the same time, the ADP's earlier report on employment in the non-agricultural sector shows an increase by 312,000 jobs.

NZDUSD, daily
The New Zealand dollar was supported by news of the continuation of negotiations to resolve the trade conflict between the US and China; commodity prices are also rising. At the same time, reports on the economy of New Zealand for December have not yet been received. In this situation, the deals on the trend seem to be the most effective, which is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. The USD, despite the political and economic risks in the US, can successfully withstand the weakened New Zealand dollar. Furthermore, the low probability of ending the trade conflict in the near future practically leaves the NZD without any support, but under pressure from internal and external factors preventing the NZD from strengthening.