Today we would take a look at the EUR/USD currency pair. Though we have seen ups and downs in this instrument lately, the general price movement in September has been upwards and continues to be so.
The outlook for the European single currency has improved this month compared to the rest of the summer. Since right now the European Central Bank isn’t much of a factor, considering the steady course of their policy, the euro was able to strengthen for other reasons. One such factor is hope that Italy will manage to resolve its financial difficulties without causing too much trouble for the eurozone. Furthermore, the latest inflation reports from the eurozone showed a slight increase, which is good news for the ECB and the euro. Nevertheless, there is also a negative factor bringing the EUR down, and that is the inability to negotiate a Brexit deal. After the failure of last week’s talks with Theresa May, a hard Brexit seems more likely than ever. Although this would be bad mostly for the pound, the euro could suffer if trade is disrupted. Today there is also a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi in Brussels which is of high importance to the euro.
On the other hand, the American dollar has relaxed in the last two weeks. Although economic data from the United States continues to be strong, the reserve currency dropped in value due to a higher risk appetite from investors, who started turning away from safety assets like the dollar and the yen. This is the result of lessening worries over the trade war with China and the financial problems of developing markets like Turkey and Argentina. It is very likely that this Wednesday we would have an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve which would strengthen the dollar.
In terms of the daily chart, today we have a pivot point for the pair located at 1.1747. The daily support levels lie at 1.1741 and 1.1734. The daily resistances are located at 1.1754 and 1.1760, with the pair currently trading slightly above them. We expect the price to continue rising. The indicators of technical analysis and the moving averages agree on a strong buy recommendation.
