GBP/JPY: Fundamental Review & Forecast

It's time to invest in risky assets. The deals to buy are still effective.

Fundamental Analysis
Apr 02, 2021

The uptrend continues and its intensity is increasing. On the chart we observe the testing and shifting of the resistance line up, although the technical analysis indicators signal that the overbought zone has been reached. The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against major currencies due to the growing appetite for risky assets, as well as due to the weakness of the Japanese economy.

In particular, according to the state statistics in the UK, there is an increase in business activity in the manufacturing sector, and the GDP for the fourth quarter has been revised from 1% to 1.3%. Investments in the business for the same period increased by 5.9%, exceeding the forecasts. Also, investors are pricing in the pace of vaccination, which is quite active in the UK and makes investment in the British economy very promising.

The Japanese economy, in turn, is also showing a recovery in business activity, but the growth rate is weaker, compared to what we are seeing in the United Kingdom. Unemployment is held at 2.9%. Perhaps in the future the situation will improve, as indicated by the sentiment index among big manufacturers, which recovered to +5 pips after four months of being in the negative zone.

Today the volatility on the market is extremely low: in the UK, Good Friday is celebrated and the markets have a day off. However, today it is possible to open new deals to make a profit next week. Most technical analysis tools signal the effectiveness of the deals on the trend. Right on Tuesday risky assets will receive new signals with the publication of the business activity index in China, and on Wednesday a similar index will be provided for the British economy. Our choice for today are the deals to buy.

Stanislav Litinskyi

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