Right now the price of crude oil is rising due to developments in the Middle East. After a recent escalation between the United States and Iran, today Trump stated that the US had shot down an Iranian drone, while Iran denied that claim, saying they did not lose any drones at all. This implies that Trump’s earlier statement is either untrue or that the US shot someone else’s drone by mistake. In any event, tensions in the region always cause oil prices to increase.
The stock markets are doing well today, making gains on positive earnings data. Moreover, they are also benefiting from an indication from the Federal Reserve that a more serious interest rate decrease by 50 points might be coming, instead of the expected 25.
After John Williams, several other Fed representatives came forward with similar comments and concerns, bringing the probability of a 50 basis point rate decrease up to 46%. Still, some analysts are beginning to argue against it, saying the US economy does not need so much support right now.
